Roger Spitz, President of Techistential and Chair of the Disruptive Futures Institute, joined SOIF’s community event last October to inspire actionable thinking on navigating uncertainty. Author of the bestselling “Disrupt with Impact”, he shared insights into reframing disruption as a driver for systemic change. His book provides tools to help decision-makers navigate and respond effectively in an increasingly ‘UN-VICE’ world—Unknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex and Exponential. Systemic change has diminished the value of ‘ad-vice’.
A ‘polycrisis’ requires new approaches
Climate change, rapid technological advancements and geopolitical tensions are pushing our systems to a breaking point. These interconnected challenges create cascading uncertainties that demand more than reactive solutions. Traditional playbooks–designed for stability and predictability–no longer address the complexities of the present. Decision-makers need new approaches to anticipate change and navigate disruption.
“As a society we created the conditions that led to this ‘polycrisis’, yet we lack the foresight and adaptability to resolve it. The status quo isn’t an option. We need to disrupt the norms with impact, catalyzing our agency to influence alternative outcomes. The time has come to be response-able, agile architects of the future, unconstrained by perceived limitations and defined by boundless possibilities.”
The AAA Framework–Antifragile, Anticipatory and Agility— is at the centre of his work. This scalable model applies equally to individual organisations and whole systems, as standard playbooks and legacy organisational models are becoming increasingly ineffective. It also addresses varying levels of unpredictability, from risk, where outcomes and probabilities are knowable, to uncertainty, where the probabilities are unclear, and deep uncertainty, where the future is unknowable, and even its parameters are in flux.
- Antifragile. Strengthening through shocks. Resilient systems withstand shocks whilst antifragile systems improve because of them. In practice, this means designing systems to adapt and grow stronger under pressure. The concept is adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work, “Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.”
- Anticipatory. Preparing for change. Rather than prediction, anticipatory thinking focuses on preparation. This involves scanning for weak signals, mapping new possibilities and potential scenarios, and evaluating decisions against a variety of outcomes.
- Agility. Adapting in the present. Balancing short-term actions with long-term vision requires cognitive agility, experimentation and cross-disciplinary thinking. This allows real-time trial and error as there may be no right answers to guide us, creating new combinations in a world where patterns are hard to interpret.
The case of foresight
“One of the reasons I decided to focus my work on futures and foresight is to deal with the unpredictability of the world. With foresight, we are not looking for a predetermined answer or specific outcome. Foresight is the capacity to explore the possible futures systemically.”
With two decades in investment banking, Roger advised on over 50 transactions worth $25 billion. As Global Head of Technology M&A at one of the world’s largest banks, he worked with CEOs, founders and boards to evaluate strategy and competitiveness. This revealed the limits of decision-making frameworks built on short-term gains and assumptions of stability. Seeing these gaps, Roger shifted his focus from finance to foresight. He now applies his understanding of corporate decision-making to help organisations build antifragile systems and sustainable value.
At the core of this shift is foresight’s capacity to reframe challenges. Where finance often prioritises efficiency, foresight invites deeper reflection: What systems need to change to create resilience? How can decisions we make today shape better futures?
Applying foresight requires looking beyond crises and adapting to emergent complexities. Integrating tools such as the AAA Framework enables organisations to strengthen under pressure, prepare for uncertainty and build adaptive systems. This shift is on creating systems designed for a non-linear, unpredictable world while laying the foundations for transformative change. The conversation then moves from “what’s next?” to “what’s possible?”. It offers the mindset and methods to create change–not in spite of uncertainty but because of it. The trade-off between efficiency and resiliency is a trade-off between fragile and antifragile.
The shift towards building adaptive systems and working towards transformative change is gaining momentum globally and achieving tangible results on the ground. Lux Carbon Standard (LuxCS), Brazil’s first voluntary carbon market certifier collaborated with Disruptive Futures Institute to transform the country’s carbon markets – through both financial expertise, anticipatory governance and systems thinking. Their work shaped Bill 182/2024, introducing stricter carbon credit standards while expanding access to those often disproportionately disadvantaged–local landowners and small-scale stakeholders–and ensured fairer compensation.
A shared space for transformative action
Our last community event brought together SOIF alumni and next generation foresight practitioners to explore actionable ways of addressing uncertainty and driving systemic change. We had the pleasure of hosting Roger to share his insights from Disrupt with Impact, while James Balzer, NGFP2023 Fellow and researcher with Roger’s Disruptive Futures Institute, discussed their role in the LuxCS project to improve verification and access in Brazil’s carbon markets. The session was designed to inspire the community by showing how local initiatives and practical approaches can drive bottom-up transformation.
In London, SOIF Operations Director Caroline Star and Director of Futures Andrew Curry caught up with Roger. They discussed insights from Disrupt with Impact and explored the Implementation Handbook on the Declaration on Future Generations.
These resources help build the capacity for anticipatory thinking and transformative action. They equip people with the tools to create tangible and lasting impact. Shaping the future, after all, is a skill that can be developed.
Learn more about building foresight capability here.
To know more about Roger’s work, follow Disruptive Futures Institute on LinkedIn and Instagram.