Climate adaptation and 100 year scenarios

Challenge

The National Infrastructure Commission for Wales (NICW) sought to explore how futures and foresight methods could strengthen Wales’ long-term infrastructure planning,  particularly around climate adaptation, community engagement, and transport futures.

NICW recognised that adapting to climate change over the next 5–80 years requires inclusive approaches that ensure fairness across generations and communities. To do so, they commissioned SOIF to lead two complementary strands of work:

1. Engaging Communities in Climate Adaptation Conversations: exploring how diverse, place-based communities can engage meaningfully in climate and infrastructure decisions; and
   
2. 2100 Scenario:, an exploratory project using 75-year horizon scenarios to understand long-term infrastructure implications and near-term policy considerations.

Approach

Engaging Communities:

Working in partnership with NICW and community organisations in Grangetown, Cardiff, SOIF designed and delivered a seven-month participatory futures process that co-designed and tested approaches to engage local citizens in climate adaptation and infrastructure conversations.

Three pilots were run with diverse community groups: youth, intergenerational, and faith-based, culminating in a public event during Ramadan to share learnings. The work combined participatory foresight, place-based methods, and co-design principles to uncover what enables meaningful, inclusive dialogue around climate adaptation. A Community Engagement Toolkit was subsequently developed to support other communities across Wales and internationally in replicating these approaches.

A detailed internal report captured learnings and recommendations on embedding participatory futures within infrastructure and policy systems, emphasising the importance of fairness, creativity, and sustained community representation.

2100 Scenarios:

Running in parallel, SOIF facilitated a participatory foresight process with ~35 experts and policymakers to explore four 75-year scenarios for Wales’ infrastructure future.
The project assessed implications across four representative Welsh localities (Bridgend, Ystrad Mynach, Cardigan, Blaenau Ffestiniog) and examined how long-term futures thinking could inform near-term infrastructure and transport policy.

Two outputs were published:

• The main 2100 Scenarios report, outlining four contrasting futures and key implications for transport, mobility, and place-based resilience
  
• A complementary Mott MacDonald report, visualising potential population and flooding impacts by 2100, using heat maps to highlight areas of future risk and investment need

Outcome

Both strands have been delivered successfully, with outputs now published and shared with NICW. They provide strong reference points for ongoing learning and reflection, informing how participatory and long-term foresight methods can continue to shape Wales’ infrastructure and climate adaptation strategies.

This work embodies SOIF’s Theory of Change, demonstrating that transformation only lasts when citizens, organisations, and leaders work together. By integrating futures, systems, and people-focused approaches, these projects exemplify how foresight can build capability, deepen participation, and drive meaningful, lasting change across communities and decision-making systems.